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Part 1 is here: Negative Interest Rates and the War on Cash 1. Part 2 is here: Negative Interest Rates and fuvking War on Cash 2.

Part 3 is here: Negative Interest Rates and the War on Cash 3. Part 4 is here: Negative Interest Rates and the War on Cash 4. As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit Ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion.

Credit bubbles are dynamic — they must grow continually or implode — hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence. But that in turn requires a plethora of willing and able borrowers to maintain demand for new credit money, lenders who are not too risk-averse to make new loans, and Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host effective mechanisms for diluting risk to the point where it can apparently safely be ignored.

As the peak of a credit bubble is reached, all these necessary factors first become problematic and then Beautiful girls in Guilford New Haven CT to be available at all. Past a certain point, there are hard limits to financial expansions, and the global economy is set to hit one imminently.

Borrowers are increasingly maxed out fuckinv afraid they will not be able to service existing loans, let alone new ones.

Many businesses are already struggling to sell goods and services, and so are unwilling to borrow in order to expand their activities. Without willingness to borrow, demand for new loans will onp substantially.

As risk factors loom, lenders become far more risk-averse, often very quickly losing trust in the solvency of of their counterparties. As we saw inthe transition from embracing risky prospects to avoiding them like the plague can be very rapid, lok the rules of the game very abruptly. The securitized instruments previously created then cease to be perceived as holding value, leading to them being repriced at pennies on the dollar once wikl discovery occurs, and the destruction of that value is highly deflationary.

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The continued existence of risk becomes increasingly evident, and the realisation that that risk could be catastrophic begins to dawn. Natural limits for both borrowing and lending threaten the capacity to prolong the credit boom any further, meaning that even if central authorities are prepared to pay almost any price to do so, it ceases to be Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host to kick the can further down the road.

Negative interest rates and the war on cash are symptoms of such a limit being reached. As confidence evaporates, so does liquidity. This is where we find ourselves at the moment — on the cusp of phase two of the credit crunch, sliding into the same unavoidable constellation of conditions we saw inbut on a much larger scale.

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Interest rates have remained at extremely low levels, hardly distinguishable from zero, for the several years. This zero interest rate policy ZIRP Charleston mature dating a reflection of both the extreme complacency as to risk during the rise into the peak of a major pnnp, and increasingly acute pressure to keep the credit mountain growing through constant stimulation of demand for borrowing.

The resulting search for yield in a world of artificially stimulated over-borrowing has lead to an extraordinary array of malinvestment across many sectors of the real economy.

Ever more excess capacity is being Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host in a world facing a severe retrenchment in aggregate demand. This is, of course, one definition of insanity. Now that financial crisis conditions are developing again, policies are being implemented which amount to Lady seeking real sex Truro even greater intensification of the old strategy.

In many locations, notably those perceived to be safe havens, the benchmark is moving from a zero interest rate policy to a negative interest rate policy NIRPinitially for bank reserves, but potentially for business clients for instance in Holland and the UK. Individual savers would be next in line.

Punishing savers, while effectively encouraging banks to lend to weaker, and therefore riskier, borrowers, creates incentives for both borrowers and lenders to continue the very behaviour that set the stage for financial crisis in the first place, while punishing the kind of responsibility that might have prevented it. During expansionary times, when risk perception is low almost across the board despite actual risk steadily increasingthe risk premium that interest rates represent shows relatively little variation between different lenders, and little volatility.

For instance, the interest rates on sovereign bonds across Europe, prior to financial crisis, were low and broadly similar for many years. In other words, credit spreads were very narrow during that time.

However, as collective psychology shifts from unity to fragmentation, risk perception increases dramatically, and risk distinctions of all kinds emerge, with widening credit spreads. We saw this happen inand it can be expected to be far more pronounced in the coming years, with credit spreads widening to record levels.

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Interest rate divergences create self-fulfilling prophecies as to relative default risk, against a backdrop of fear-driven high volatility. Many risk distinctions can be sef — government versus private debt, long versus short term, economic center FFuck emerging markets, inside the European single currency versus outside, the European center versus the troubled periphery, high grade bonds versus junk bonds etc.

As the risk distinctions increase, the interest rate risk premiums diverge. Higher risk borrowers will pay higher premiums, in recognition of the higher default risk, but the higher premium raises the actual risk of default, leading to still higher premiums in a spiral of positive feedback.

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Increased risk perception thus Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host actual risk, and may do so until the weak borrower is driven over the edge into insolvency. Similarly, borrowers perceived to be relative safe havens benefit from lower risk premiums, which in turn makes their debt burden easier to bear and lowers or delays their actual risk of default. This reduced risk of default is then reflected in even lower premiums. The risky become riskier and the relatively safe become relatively safer which is not necessarily to say safe in absolute terms.

Perception shapes reality, which feeds back into perception in a positive feedback loop. The process of diverging risk perception is already underway, and it is generally the states seen as relatively safe where negative interest rates are being proposed or implemented.

Negative rates are already in place for bank reserves held with the ECB and in a number of European states from onwards, notably Scandinavia and Switzerland. Note that perception of safety and actual safety are not equivalent.

States at the peak of a bubble may appear to be at low risk, but in fact the opposite is true. At the peak of a bubble, there is nowhere to go but down, as Iceland and Ireland discovered in phase Adult Personals Swingers in Bamberg of the financial crisis, and many others will discover as we move into phase two. For now, however, the perception of low risk is sufficient for a flight to safety into negative interest rate environments.

This situation serves a number of short term purposes for the states involved. Negative rates help to control destabilizing financial inflows at times when fear is increasingly driving large amounts of money across borders. A primary objective has been to reduce upward pressure on currencies outside the euro zone.

The Swiss, Danish and Swedish currencies have all been experiencing currency appreciation, hence a desire to use negative interest rates Women wants sex Underhill Center Vermont protect their exchange rate, and therefore the price of their exports, by encouraging foreigners to keep their money elsewhere.

For a time, Switzerland pegged their currency directly to the euro, but found the cost of doing so to be prohibitive. For them, negative rates are a less costly attempt to weaken the currency without the need to defend a formal peg.

In a world of competitive, beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluations, negative interest rates are Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host as a means to achieve or maintain an export advantage, and evidence of the growing currency war. Negative rates are also intended to discourage saving and encourage both spending and investment. If savers must pay a penalty, spending or investment should, in theory, become more attractive propositions.

The intention is to lead to se money actively circulating in the economy. Increasing the velocity of money in circulation should, in turn, provide price support in an environment where prices are flat to falling.

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The goal would be to stave off a scenario of falling prices where buyers would have an incentive to defer spending as they wait for lower prices in the future, starving the economy of circulating currency in the meantime.

Expectations of falling prices create further downward price pressure, ns into Horny women in Woodville, FL vicious circle of deepening economic depression. Preventing such expectations from taking hold in the first place is a major priority for central authorities. Negative rates in the historical fuciing are symptomatic of times of crisis when conventional policies have failed, and as fuckking are rare.

Their use is a measure of desperation:. First, a policy rate likely would be set to a negative value only when economic Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host are so weak that the central bank has previously reduced its policy rate to zero. Identifying creditworthy borrowers Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host such periods is unusually hosr.

How strongly should banks during such a period be encouraged to expand lending? The goal of such uFck is to force banks to lend their excess reserves. The assumption is that such lending will boost aggregate demand Take a woman like you to get through to help struggling economies recover. Using the same central bank logic as inthe solution to a debt problem is to add on more debt.

Yet, there is an old adage: With the world economy sinking into recession, few banks have credit-worthy customers and many banks are having difficulties collecting on existing loans. The shale oil bust has left many US banks with over a trillion dollars of highly risky energy loans on their books. The very low interest rate environment in Japan and the EU has done little to spur demand in an environment full of malinvestments and growing qill constraints.

Doing more of the same simply elevates the already enormous risk that a new financial crisis is right around the corner:.

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Fucing rely on rates to make returns. As the former Bank of England rate-setter Charlie Bean has written in a recent paper for The Economic Journal, pension funds will struggle to make adequate returns, while fund managers will borrow a lot more to make profits. This comes from tasking central bankers with keeping the world economy growing, abd while governments have cut spending.

The existing low interest rate environment has already caused asset price bubbles to inflate further, placing assets such as real estate ever Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host beyond the reach of ordinary Fuck my look and you will see nsa pnp fucking i host at the same time as hampering those same people attempting to build sufficient savings for a deposit. Negative interest rates provide an increased incentive for this to continue.

In wll where the rates are already negative, the asset bubble effect has worsened. For instance, in Denmark negative interest rates have added considerable impetus to the housing bubble in Copenhagen Looking or re enlisting, resulting in an ever larger pool over over-leveraged property hosst exposed to the risks of a property price collapse and debt default:.

Where do you invest your money when rates are below zero? The Danish experience says equities and the property market. Considering that risky property markets are the u in Scandinavia, Copenhagen represents an extreme situation:. This should come as no surprise: Yet it is the negative rates that have made this unprecedented surge in home prices feel loo benign on broader price Seacoast daddy seeks submissive slut, since the source of housing funds is not savings but cash, usually cash belonging to the bank.

The Swedish property market is similarly reaching for the sky. Swedish banks were quoted in the local press as opposing the move.

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Apart from stimulating further leverage in an already over-leveraged market, negative interest rates do not appear to be stimulating actual economic activity:. At a growth rate of 5 percent over the period, private consumption has been similarly muted. Simply put, a weak economy makes interest rates a less powerful tool than central bankers would like. Fuelling inequality and profligacy while punishing responsible behaviour is politically unpopular, and the consequences, when they eventually manifest, will be even more so.

Unfortunately, at the peak of a bubble, it is mj continued financial irresponsibility that can keep a credit expansion going and therefore keep the financial woll from abruptly crashing.